The five-day old conflict between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway regions South Ossetia and Abkhazia looks set to widen, despite frantic and hopeless efforts by foreign envoys to call a ceasefire.
Anybody who knows Georgia’s political and military affairs have said for a long time that relations between the host country and the Russian-dominated minorities in the two regions have been simmering for years. The anger has now boiled over and at the moment would be very difficult to stop. Thousands of innocent civilians have died already in the conflict.
In the short-to-medium term, there won’t be any planned military action against either country. The United States and British forces are already bogged down and overstretched in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not be able to quickly mobilise any military personal. British forces have been hardest hit by mass resignations and soldiers desertions (going AWOL).
There is also an economic price to be paid for this conflict. The price of crude oil, which had gone down after hitting record levels a few weeks ago, have shot up back again on the markets, due to fears that supplies could be affected- a huge oil pipeline runs under the region which is connected to supply homes and businesses in Western Europe…. particularly Britain, which have already seen petrol and energy prices become more expensive in recent months. As local supplies dwindle, gas and oil will soon be imported from some of the world’s most unstable regions and countries.
In among the bloody carnage that we see on our TV screens and in the newspapers, we hope and pray for the conflict to be halted as soon as possible. If not, then we may have to soon prepare for war.